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Love it when someone lays out EXACTLY what they are thinking. Regarding the first hypothesis, it overlooks the eternal and uncreated nature of all matter. Second Law of Thermodynamics. Time to re-visit Spinoza? Substance is all and all is substance. and Insofar as we know, it is eternal and unending. Therefore the wisest stance is naturalistic, perhaps broadly pantheistic or at minimum agnostic; not Nature's God (of the deists) but Nature is God. There is no sound reason to assume otherwise. Anything else is "a priori." All Devotion to the the Principle and Entity of all Phenomena.

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